Track Q's live probabilities
Spot where Q and market prices disagree. Follow Q's live probabilities as evidence changes, compare them with market prices, and inspect the reasoning behind the spread.
Where Q differs from the market
GeopoliticsUpdated 3m ago
US-Iran nuclear deal signed before Jun 30, 2026?
Quotient says NO8%
Spread-21pt
Market says NO29%
Why Q differs
Tehran's Hormuz-first sequencing forecloses a deal on the market's timeline.
How Q has performed
Resolved callsAbout Resolved callsPaper-trading positions that have closed. Each position is sized at $100. Open positions are excluded from this count.
71
of 261 positionsWin rateAbout Win rateShare of resolved positions where Q's call ended in profit. Calculated as winners ÷ resolved positions.
80%
across resolved marketsPortfolio returnAbout Portfolio returnTotal paper P&L divided by capital deployed ($26,100 across 261 positions at $100 each). Reflects the full paper book, not annualized.
+12.7%
paper trading ROIPaper trades only · $100 per position · cumulative P&L plotted by publish dateAbout this chartPositions are paper-traded at $100 each. The line is the running sum of paper P&L, ordered by the date each position was published. No real capital is at risk.
Figures dated to Jun 12, 2026 · live values at app.quotient.social/performance
Recent resolved forecasts
QuestionResolvedQuotientAbout Quotient probabilityQuotient's probability when Q published this call.PolymarketAbout Polymarket probabilityPolymarket's probability when Q published this call. Resolved markets settle at 0% or 100%.Outcome
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?Published May 31 · 20266%NO22%NOloss
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?May 21 · 202698%YES76%YESwin
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?Jun 01 · 202615%NO28%NOwin
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?Jun 01 · 20265%NO23%NOwin
Showing 4 of 71Complete record at app.quotient.social/performance
Q also works without market prices
When there is no liquid market for a question, Q can still produce inspectable probabilities by reading evidence, assigning a forecast, and tracking updates over time. Read how the same method applies beyond prediction markets.