Proof of method
Whose Iran CallsHeld Up?
Quotient evaluated 557 expert predictions from 130 public experts to measure who added signal before the outcome was known.
Finding
Credentials did not predict signal
Put Q to workon open questions
Quotient reads public evidence and market prices to identify where risk is being misread before outcomes are known.
Latest reportJune 8, 2026Expert Index · Iran
Method
We publish the whole record
Forecasts are only useful when you can see how they were made. Every report keeps the question, evidence, probability, and outcome together.
01
Question
What would resolve this
02
Evidence
Primary sources, testimony, reporting
03
Probability
Q's call and reasoning
04
Outcome
Updates as the call resolves
Work with Quotient
01
Market signals
Event-market signals where Q sees price misreading risk, timing, or resolution criteria.
Request signal access →02
Custom forecast monitors
Private monitors for the questions your team is tracking, with Q's current probability, what changed, and scheduled briefings.
Request a custom monitor →03
Forecast data and API
Self-serve API access to Q's forecasts, with probabilities, evidence summaries, and update history.
Get the data →